Sunday, June 24, 2018

Weekend Box Office Update Jun 22-24 and Some Sequel Analysis

Good afternoon Disney friends,

The weekend has about come and gone and the estimates are showing another good weekend for Disney movies. There are still 3 films associated with Disney that are still found in the top 10 and with no major competition, Disney films should continue to hold well for the weeks to come.

First up is Incredibles 2, which had a larger drop than expected but still brought in approximately $80 mil for a running total of $350 mil . One possible reason for the drop is that Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom with its opening of $150 mil was able to chomp into some of the ticket sales because of its strength. An interested side note, this is only the second time (first that did not include a holiday) in which 2 films opened up back to back with first weekends of over $100 mil (May 2007-Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End were the other 2 films.) On Tuesday, I2 ($27 mil) was able to have the highest Tuesday for the month of June. It has already surpassed the entire run of the first Incredibles, which was $261. It was able to accomplish this feat in just 7 days of release (Thursday.) As of now it worldwide gross stands at $485 mil, which may seem low, but animated films tend to have a long roll out period. In fact, it will not reach its last market until September so this film will continue to grow and will probably hit the $1 bil mark by the time it finishes playing. 

Solo: A Star Wars Story is estimated to gross approximately $4 mil this weekend. This puts it over the $200 mil mark and it is still doing pretty good considering how "low" it opened. In its 31 days of release, it has only dropped below $1 mil once. Partially because of this film (and probably almost completely because of this film,) Disney/Lucasfilm is being rumored to be putting a hold on any single entry films, instead looking to focus on Episode 9 and the future new set of trilogy of trilogy films that will be separate from the Skywalker family.

Avengers: Infinity War was able to pull in an estimated $2.48 mil this weekend which puts it less than $1 mil of the $670 mil mark.
Black Panther added another $74k to put it about $250k shy of $700 mil.
A Wrinkle in Time saw a bit of a jump this weekend and now becomes Disney's fifth film of the year to cross the $100 mil mark. This means that all of Disney's films released in 2018 have crossed that threshold.
Now for a little bit of nonexpert analysis/opinion. Looking at the past 2 weekends, I feel that unless the film has a strong or continuation of a story line or there has been enough separation, then sequels are starting to have a struggle. Now do not get me wrong, Fallen Kingdom is going to make a lot of money (maybe even cross the $1 bil mark for worldwide gross,) but this film is coming in weaker than the first Jurassic World film. That film did better than expected, but it had been almost 14 years since the last Jurassic Park film, which is close the length of time between the first Incredibles film and its sequel. Marvel films are able to grow from sequel to sequel because they advance the story line, but even then, if the plot seems weak or just a retelling of the previous film (Marvel's The Avengers vs. Avengers: Age of Ultron,) then expect there to be a drop. 

Thank you for sharing your time with me and I look forward to sharing with you Disney movie information with you again soon.

PS: As always if you need any help booking a magical vacation, please let me know how I can help.

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